ATP tennis predict — Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston

ATP Clay Estoril · SF

Predicted probability

Luca Van Assche

France

58.46%

Hugo Gaston

France

41.54%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.32

Market probability

59.34% / 40.66%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Van Assche is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1798 vs 1714), a higher Elo rating (1745 vs 1708) and a better head-to-head record against Hugo Gaston (1-0).

Player Comparison

1744.9 Elo 1707.7

1797.8 Elo (surface) 1713.9

54 Wins 90

19 Wins (surface) 36

8 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.014 Dominance ratio 1.241

78 Rank 109

22.2 Age 25.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Van Assche

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Van Assche Hugo Gaston

1st Serve In %

60.7%

54.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

37.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.1%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Van Assche Hugo Gaston

Break Points Saved %

49.2%

52.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.8%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Van Assche 1 – 0 Hugo Gaston

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-22

SF

Luca Van Assche #54

Hugo Gaston #97

6-4 6-4

1 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 2

75 Service Points 66

32 First Serve In 45

22 First Serve Won 28

16 Second Serve Won 10

9 Break Points Saved 3

14 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-25

SF

Luca Van Assche #78

Hugo Gaston #109

6-4 7-5

2 Aces 0

5 Double Faults 0

74 Service Points 70

38 First Serve In 35

26 First Serve Won 22

23 Second Serve Won 22

3 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 9

18 Winners 24

33 Unforced Errors 39

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Clay Marrakech · 2026-03-30

R32

Luca Van Assche #109

Hugo Gaston #116

6-4 7-6(5)

1 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 4

90 Service Points 83

67 First Serve In 37

42 First Serve Won 19

9 Second Serve Won 22

9 Break Points Saved 6

13 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston — Prediction