ATP tennis predict — Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 19:55

Predicted probability

Luca Van Assche

France

66.21%

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

33.79%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.65

Market probability

74.19% / 25.81%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Van Assche is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1568 vs 1475), a higher Elo rating (1754 vs 1722) and more wins on hard courts (29 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1753.8 Elo 1721.9

1567.7 Elo (surface) 1474.9

56 Wins 15

29 Wins (surface) 2

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.101 Dominance ratio 1.142

49 Rank 131

22.2 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Van Assche

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Gustavo Heide

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-20.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Van Assche Gustavo Heide

1st Serve In %

60.7%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.1%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

65.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Van Assche Gustavo Heide

Break Points Saved %

49.2%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

27.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.8%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Van Assche 0 – 0 Gustavo Heide

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-11

qualification - 1. round

Luca Van Assche #49

Gustavo Heide #131

6-3 6-4

2 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 2

64 Service Points 56

36 First Serve In 29

30 First Serve Won 22

17 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 2

11 Winners 17

20 Unforced Errors 43

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide — Prediction