ATP tennis predict — Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 2. round 17:30

Predicted probability

Luca Van Assche

France

64.23%

Dusan Lajovic

Serbia

35.77%

Average Odds

1.35 / 2.98

Market probability

68.82% / 31.18%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Van Assche is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1765 vs 1674), a stronger return game (42.5% vs 32.9% of return points won) and a better head-to-head record against Dusan Lajovic (2-1).

Player Comparison

1764.7 Elo 1674.1

1579.2 Elo (surface) 1659.8

57 Wins 322

30 Wins (surface) 143

8 Last 15 form 8

2 Head-to-head wins 1

1.107 Dominance ratio 0.909

49 Rank 149

22.2 Age 36.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Van Assche

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Dusan Lajovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Van Assche Dusan Lajovic

1st Serve In %

60.7%

67.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

24.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

40.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.1%

64.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Van Assche Dusan Lajovic

Break Points Saved %

49.2%

60.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

28.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.8%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Van Assche 2 – 1 Dusan Lajovic

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-13

qualification - 2. round

Luca Van Assche #49

Dusan Lajovic #149

7-6 2-6 6-3

6 Aces 5

8 Double Faults 1

87 Service Points 94

55 First Serve In 53

41 First Serve Won 39

16 Second Serve Won 20

1 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 4

18 Winners 25

42 Unforced Errors 62

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Clay Umag · 2026-07-13

1. round

Luca Van Assche #86

Dusan Lajovic #152

2-6 7-5 6-4

8 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 3

84 Service Points 108

59 First Serve In 77

39 First Serve Won 47

12 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 7

9 Break Points Faced 12

41 Winners 23

52 Unforced Errors 34

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Hard Us Open · 2025-08-25

Q1

Luca Van Assche #204

Dusan Lajovic #128

6-3 6-1

1 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 3

52 Service Points 48

37 First Serve In 31

28 First Serve Won 18

6 Second Serve Won 5

4 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Parma CH · 2022-10-03

R32

Dusan Lajovic #85

Luca Van Assche #231

6-2 7-6(4)

3 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 1

73 Service Points 59

56 First Serve In 40

39 First Serve Won 29

10 Second Serve Won 7

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 5