ATP tennis predict — Luca Van Assche vs Cameron Norrie

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Luca Van Assche

France

39.05%

Cameron Norrie

Great Britain

60.95%

Average Odds

2.73 / 1.46

Market probability

34.84% / 65.16%

Why This Prediction?

Cameron Norrie is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1784 vs 1637), a stronger return game (42.2% vs 37.7% of return points won) and a stronger serve (61.3% vs 52.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1787.8 Elo 1781.7

1637.3 Elo (surface) 1784.4

58 Wins 304

31 Wins (surface) 193

9 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 3

1.030 Dominance ratio 1.133

40 Rank 33

22.3 Age 31.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Van Assche

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Cameron Norrie

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Van Assche Cameron Norrie

1st Serve In %

60.7%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.1%

63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

68.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

49.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

55.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Van Assche Cameron Norrie

Break Points Saved %

49.2%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

41.0%

47.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.8%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Van Assche 1 – 3 Cameron Norrie

Hard US Open · 2026-08-30

1. round

Luca Van Assche #40

Cameron Norrie #35

6-7 6-2 6-2 6-3

8 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 3

106 Service Points 112

58 First Serve In 75

49 First Serve Won 43

24 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 11

37 Winners 32

21 Unforced Errors 49

2.7 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Metz · 2024-11-04

R16

Cameron Norrie #57

Luca Van Assche #112

6-3 3-6 6-1

5 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 3

75 Service Points 77

53 First Serve In 51

39 First Serve Won 36

15 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Roanne CH · 2024-10-07

QF

Luca Van Assche #121

Cameron Norrie #52

1-6 7-5 6-3

4 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 5

84 Service Points 103

57 First Serve In 62

41 First Serve Won 38

14 Second Serve Won 24

7 Break Points Saved 6

10 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Auckland · 2024-01-08

R16

Cameron Norrie #19

Luca Van Assche #87

6-3 6-7(6) 6-1

12 Aces 10

1 Double Faults 1

100 Service Points 90

61 First Serve In 53

45 First Serve Won 34

24 Second Serve Won 21

5 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2023-01-16

R128

Cameron Norrie #12

Luca Van Assche #143

7-6(3) 6-0 6-3

6 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 4

96 Service Points 80

67 First Serve In 41

47 First Serve Won 25

13 Second Serve Won 15

5 Break Points Saved 8

8 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Luca Van Assche vs Cameron Norrie — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Luca Van Assche — Last 10

Cameron Norrie — Last 10