ATP tennis predict — Luca Staeheli vs Sebastian Gorzny

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · 1. round 23:30

Predicted probability

Luca Staeheli

Switzerland

45.27%

Sebastian Gorzny

USA

54.73%

Average Odds

2.34 / 1.50

Market probability

39.06% / 60.94%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1658.1 Elo 1660.3

1509.2 Elo (surface) 1641.1

13 Wins (Challenger) 5

2 Wins (surface) 5

10 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.330 Dominance ratio 1.024

456 Rank 484

26.5 Age 22.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Staeheli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Sebastian Gorzny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Sebastian Gorzny

1st Serve In %

—

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

43.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

54.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.5%

58.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.5%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Sebastian Gorzny

Break Points Saved %

—

66.2%

Break Points Converted %

—

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

57.3%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Staeheli 0 – 0 Sebastian Gorzny

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-16

1. round

Sebastian Gorzny #484

Luca Staeheli #456

7-5 6-2

5 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 6

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

21 First Serve Won 27

17 Second Serve Won 11

9 Break Points Saved 4

15 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.3

Luca Staeheli vs Sebastian Gorzny — Prediction