ATP tennis predict — Luca Staeheli vs Roger Pascual Ferra

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · qualification - round of 16 19:00

Predicted probability

Luca Staeheli

Switzerland

45.42%

Roger Pascual Ferra

Spain

54.58%

Average Odds

2.95 / 1.34

Market probability

31.24% / 68.76%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1629.8 Elo 1584.5

1436.5 Elo (surface) 1583.9

12 Wins (Challenger) 5

1 Wins (surface) 5

10 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.330 Dominance ratio 0.976

446 Rank 659

26.5 Age 20.5

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Staeheli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Roger Pascual Ferra

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Roger Pascual Ferra

1st Serve In %

—

67.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

60.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

60.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

34.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

67.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

60.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.5%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.5%

35.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

53.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.09

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Roger Pascual Ferra

Break Points Saved %

—

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

61.8%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

35.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Staeheli 0 – 0 Roger Pascual Ferra

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-14

qualification - round of 16

Luca Staeheli #456

Roger Pascual Ferra #657

4-6 6-2 6-3

3 Aces 3

6 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

43 First Serve Won 34

21 Second Serve Won 13

11 Break Points Saved 1

12 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.0 Average Odds 1.3

Luca Staeheli vs Roger Pascual Ferra — Prediction