ATP tennis predict — Luca Staeheli vs Maxwell Exsted

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · qualification - 1. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Luca Staeheli

Switzerland

84.50%

Maxwell Exsted

USA

15.50%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.16

Market probability

57.60% / 42.40%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Staeheli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1614 vs 1411), more career match wins (11 vs 0) and better recent form (10 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1614.2 Elo 1410.9

1377.5 Elo (surface) 1407.0

11 Wins (Challenger) 0

0 Wins (surface) 0

10 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.330 Dominance ratio 0.683

446 Rank 863

26.5 Age 19.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Staeheli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Maxwell Exsted

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Maxwell Exsted

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

72.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

60.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.5%

45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.5%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

40.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Maxwell Exsted

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

25.0%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Staeheli 0 – 0 Maxwell Exsted

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Luca Staeheli #446

Maxwell Exsted #863

4-6 6-4 6-3

5 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

37 First Serve Won 24

23 Second Serve Won 23

7 Break Points Saved 0

10 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Luca Staeheli vs Maxwell Exsted — Prediction