ATP tennis predict — Luca Staeheli vs Juan Manuel La Serna

Challenger Clay Sion challenger · R16 10:00

Predicted probability

Luca Staeheli

Switzerland

52.75%

Juan Manuel La Serna

Argentina

47.25%

Average Odds

2.10 / 1.67

Market probability

44.30% / 55.70%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1625.9 Elo 1592.8

1660.6 Elo (surface) 1615.2

11 Wins (Challenger) 41

11 Wins (surface) 39

11 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.290 Dominance ratio 0.811

529 Rank 288

26.4 Age 22.5

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Staeheli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Juan Manuel La Serna

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Juan Manuel La Serna

1st Serve In %

—

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

57.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

20.0%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

65.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.5%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.5%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Juan Manuel La Serna

Break Points Saved %

—

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

48.5%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

27.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Staeheli 0 – 0 Juan Manuel La Serna

Clay Sion challenger · 2026-08-19

R16

Juan Manuel La Serna #288

Luca Staeheli #529

6-3 1-1

0 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

26 Service Points 32

19 First Serve In 23

11 First Serve Won 18

3 Second Serve Won 5

0 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Luca Staeheli vs Juan Manuel La Serna — Prediction