ATP tennis predict — Luca Staeheli vs Andrey Chepelev

Challenger Clay Sion challenger · 1. round 10:15

Predicted probability

Luca Staeheli

Switzerland

69.81%

Andrey Chepelev

Russia

30.19%

Average Odds

1.76 / 1.97

Market probability

52.82% / 47.18%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Staeheli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1606 vs 1448), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1643 vs 1449) and a stronger serve (63.2% vs 56.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1606.4 Elo 1448.4

1643.0 Elo (surface) 1448.8

10 Wins (Challenger) 37

10 Wins (surface) 36

10 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.293 Dominance ratio 0.897

529 Rank 359

26.4 Age 28.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Staeheli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Andrey Chepelev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Andrey Chepelev

1st Serve In %

—

67.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

50.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

29.7%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.5%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.5%

39.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

56.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Andrey Chepelev

Break Points Saved %

—

30.8%

Break Points Converted %

—

20.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

44.6%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Staeheli 0 – 0 Andrey Chepelev

Clay Sion challenger · 2026-08-18

1. round

Luca Staeheli #529

Andrey Chepelev #359

6-3 6-1

9 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 1

76 Service Points 48

51 First Serve In 29

36 First Serve Won 13

8 Second Serve Won 7

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Luca Staeheli vs Andrey Chepelev — Prediction