ATP tennis predict — Luca Staeheli vs Alex Rybakov

Challenger Hard Columbus 3 challenger · qualification - round of 16 16:00

Predicted probability

Luca Staeheli

Switzerland

47.34%

Alex Rybakov

USA

52.66%

Average Odds

2.86 / 1.37

Market probability

32.39% / 67.61%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1617.1 Elo 1535.1

1492.4 Elo (surface) 1500.8

14 Wins (Challenger) 123

3 Wins (surface) 76

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.330 Dominance ratio 1.072

448 Rank 713

26.6 Age 29.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Staeheli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Alex Rybakov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Alex Rybakov

1st Serve In %

—

69.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

43.6%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

58.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

38.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.2%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Staeheli Alex Rybakov

Break Points Saved %

—

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

—

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

52.4%

30.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Staeheli and Alex Rybakov have never played each other.

Luca Staeheli vs Alex Rybakov — Prediction