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Luca Potenza vs Lui Maxted — Prediction

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · qualification - round of 16 13:30

Predicted probability

Luca Potenza

Italy

50.08%

Lui Maxted

Great Britain

49.92%

Average Odds

2.23  /  1.59

Market probability

41.62%  /  58.38%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1575.5 Elo 1546.0
1579.4 Elo (surface) 1533.0
57 Wins (Challenger) 12
34 Wins (surface) 9
8 Last 15 form 8
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.962 Dominance ratio 1.085
536 Rank 394
26.2 Age 22.8
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Lui Maxted

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza Lui Maxted

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

57.7%
71.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%
68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.2%
46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%
29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.7%
58.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.42
0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26
0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza Lui Maxted

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

58.1%
60.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.9%
58.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Potenza and Lui Maxted have never played each other.

Luca Potenza — Last 10

W L L L W W W W W L

Lui Maxted — Last 10

W L L W L W W W L W