ATP tennis predict — Luca Potenza vs Joel Schwaerzler

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · R16 15:15

Predicted probability

Luca Potenza

Italy

33.36%

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

66.64%

Average Odds

3.74 / 1.25

Market probability

25.05% / 74.95%

Why This Prediction?

Joel Schwaerzler is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1643 vs 1545), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1681 vs 1565) and a stronger serve (70.1% vs 56.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1545.1 Elo 1643.4

1565.0 Elo (surface) 1681.2

54 Wins (Challenger) 73

31 Wins (surface) 18

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.997 Dominance ratio 1.315

488 Rank 171

26.1 Age 20.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza Joel Schwaerzler

1st Serve In %

—

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

44.2%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza Joel Schwaerzler

Break Points Saved %

—

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

27.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.0%

63.8%

Break Points Converted %

40.3%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Potenza 0 – 0 Joel Schwaerzler

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Luca Potenza #488

Joel Schwaerzler #171

6-2 6-2

1 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 4

45 Service Points 50

27 First Serve In 31

22 First Serve Won 19

12 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.7 Average Odds 1.2

Luca Potenza vs Joel Schwaerzler — Prediction