ATP tennis predict — Luca Potenza vs Inaki Montes De La Torre

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Luca Potenza

Italy

30.21%

Inaki Montes De La Torre

Spain

69.79%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Inaki Montes De La Torre is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1723 vs 1592), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1728 vs 1599) and a stronger return game (43.6% vs 40.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1592.1 Elo 1722.8

1599.1 Elo (surface) 1728.0

58 Wins (Challenger) 79

35 Wins (surface) 51

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.962 Dominance ratio 1.145

536 Rank 228

26.2 Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Inaki Montes De La Torre

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–2L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza Inaki Montes De La Torre

1st Serve In %

—

58.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

55.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.53

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.3%

61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.1%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

36.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%

51.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza Inaki Montes De La Torre

Break Points Saved %

—

56.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.8%

44.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Potenza 0 – 1 Inaki Montes De La Torre

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-05

SF

Inaki Montes De La Torre #274

Luca Potenza #488

2-6 7-6 7-6

5 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 6

98 Service Points 114

63 First Serve In 66

43 First Serve Won 41

19 Second Serve Won 27

1 Break Points Saved 7

3 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Luca Potenza vs Inaki Montes De La Torre — Prediction