ATP tennis predict — Luca Potenza vs Finn Bass

Challenger Hard Rennes challenger · qualification - 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Luca Potenza

Italy

80.33%

Finn Bass

Great Britain

19.67%

Average Odds

1.24 / 3.46

Market probability

73.62% / 26.38%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Potenza is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1601 vs 1372), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1617 vs 1400) and a stronger return game (40.9% vs 33.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1601.2 Elo 1372.3

1617.2 Elo (surface) 1400.2

56 Wins (Challenger) 7

33 Wins (surface) 4

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.962 Dominance ratio 0.891

488 Rank 1183

26.1 Age 26.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Finn Bass

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza Finn Bass

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

75.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

22.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza Finn Bass

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

63.0%

66.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.3%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Potenza 0 – 0 Finn Bass

Hard Rennes challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Finn Bass #1183

Luca Potenza #488

4-6 7-6 6-4

8 Aces 19

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

46 First Serve Won 55

23 Second Serve Won 17

1 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.5 Average Odds 1.2

Luca Potenza vs Finn Bass — Prediction