ATP tennis predict — Luca Potenza vs David Jorda Sanchis

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Luca Potenza

Italy

60.47%

David Jorda Sanchis

Spain

39.53%

Average Odds

2.12 / 1.66

Market probability

43.92% / 56.08%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Potenza is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1547 vs 1459) and a stronger return game (46.6% vs 35.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1524.5 Elo 1562.5

1547.2 Elo (surface) 1458.6

53 Wins (Challenger) 91

30 Wins (surface) 21

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.085 Dominance ratio 0.947

488 Rank 192

26.1 Age 32.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

David Jorda Sanchis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza David Jorda Sanchis

1st Serve In %

—

61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

40.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

57.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza David Jorda Sanchis

Break Points Saved %

—

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

—

34.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.0%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.3%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Potenza 0 – 0 David Jorda Sanchis

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-02

1. round

Luca Potenza #488

David Jorda Sanchis #192

7-5 2-6 7-5

0 Aces 13

5 Double Faults 3

106 Service Points 86

63 First Serve In 56

36 First Serve Won 43

28 Second Serve Won 15

7 Break Points Saved 3

10 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Luca Potenza vs David Jorda Sanchis — Prediction