ATP tennis predict — Luca Potenza vs Daniel Masur

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · qualification - 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Luca Potenza

Italy

42.53%

Daniel Masur

Germany

57.47%

Average Odds

2.35 / 1.54

Market probability

39.59% / 60.41%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Masur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1563 vs 1488), more wins on hard courts (5 vs 0) and a higher Elo rating (1527 vs 1480).

Player Comparison

1480.3 Elo 1526.7

1488.4 Elo (surface) 1562.8

51 Wins (Challenger) 214

28 Wins (surface) 133

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.123 Dominance ratio 1.131

488 Rank 378

26.1 Age 31.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Daniel Masur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza Daniel Masur

1st Serve In %

—

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

44.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

43.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

65.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

40.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Potenza Daniel Masur

Break Points Saved %

—

64.9%

Break Points Converted %

—

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.0%

58.8%

Break Points Converted %

40.3%

30.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Potenza 0 – 0 Daniel Masur

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-08-31

qualification - 1. round

Luca Potenza #488

Daniel Masur #378

7-6 7-6

5 Aces 8

6 Double Faults 3

89 Service Points 76

54 First Serve In 45

34 First Serve Won 31

17 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Luca Potenza vs Daniel Masur — Prediction