ATP tennis predict — Luca Nardi vs Federico Cina

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Luca Nardi

Italy

34.10%

Federico Cina

Italy

65.90%

Average Odds

2.57 / 1.47

Market probability

36.39% / 63.61%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Cina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1634 vs 1425) and a stronger serve (67.1% vs 65.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1671.4 Elo 1630.5

1425.0 Elo (surface) 1633.5

44 Wins 10

29 Wins (surface) 3

5 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.138 Dominance ratio 1.121

238 Rank 181

23.0 Age 19.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Nardi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Federico Cina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Nardi Federico Cina

1st Serve In %

60.9%

57.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.4%

73.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.1%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.2%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.3%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.5%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.7%

33.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Nardi Federico Cina

Break Points Saved %

64.4%

52.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%

39.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Nardi 0 – 0 Federico Cina

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Federico Cina #181

Luca Nardi #238

6-4 3-0

3 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 2

49 Service Points 42

19 First Serve In 20

14 First Serve Won 16

14 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 3

10 Winners 12

11 Unforced Errors 13

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Luca Nardi vs Federico Cina — Prediction