ATP tennis predict — Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Luca Nardi

Italy

59.52%

August Holmgren

Denmark

40.48%

Average Odds

2.24 / 1.58

Market probability

41.36% / 58.64%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Nardi is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (39.0% vs 28.2% of return points won), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1702 vs 1642) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1705.4 Elo 1672.6

1701.5 Elo (surface) 1641.6

115 Wins (Challenger) 94

84 Wins (surface) 78

8 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.067 Dominance ratio 1.244

251 Rank 236

23.2 Age 28.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Nardi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

August Holmgren

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Nardi August Holmgren

1st Serve In %

60.9%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.4%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.1%

21.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.2%

41.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.68

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.2%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.4%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.2%

57.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.8%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Nardi August Holmgren

Break Points Saved %

64.4%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%

22.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Nardi 2 – 0 August Holmgren

Hard Helsinki CH · 2024-11-04

R16

Luca Nardi #102

August Holmgren #180

7-6(6) 7-6(2)

7 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 0

84 Service Points 83

56 First Serve In 61

42 First Serve Won 40

16 Second Serve Won 14

1 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Kobe CH · 2023-11-13

R16

Luca Nardi #128

August Holmgren #335

6-3 3-6 7-5

4 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 5

85 Service Points 101

53 First Serve In 67

39 First Serve Won 48

22 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 7

4 Break Points Faced 10