ATP tennis predict — Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov

ATP Hard Chengdu · qualification - round of 16 08:30

Predicted probability

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

21.89%

Pavel Kotov

Russia

78.11%

Average Odds

3.35 / 1.30

Market probability

27.96% / 72.04%

Why This Prediction?

Pavel Kotov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1768 vs 1509), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1805 vs 1520) and more wins on hard courts (49 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1509.0 Elo 1767.9

1520.1 Elo (surface) 1804.9

0 Wins 81

0 Wins (surface) 49

0 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.990 Dominance ratio 0.878

376 Rank 188

29.6 Age 27.8

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Castelnuovo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–8L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Pavel Kotov

1st Serve In %

65.3%

65.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

84.4%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.7%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.9%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.1%

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

83.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

66.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.2%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Pavel Kotov

Break Points Saved %

92.3%

48.6%

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

74.0%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Castelnuovo 0 – 0 Pavel Kotov

Hard Chengdu · 2026-09-22

qualification - round of 16

Pavel Kotov #188

Luca Castelnuovo #376

6-7 7-5 7-5

14 Aces 14

3 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

47 First Serve Won 63

24 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 8

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov — Prediction