ATP tennis predict — Luca Castelnuovo vs Omar Jasika

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 1. round 09:30

Predicted probability

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

46.07%

Omar Jasika

Australia

53.93%

Average Odds

2.26 / 1.57

Market probability

40.99% / 59.01%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1499.7 Elo 1504.3

1514.3 Elo (surface) 1496.1

35 Wins (Challenger) 111

27 Wins (surface) 108

6 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.241 Dominance ratio 1.182

398 Rank 396

29.6 Age 29.3

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Castelnuovo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–8L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Omar Jasika

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Omar Jasika

1st Serve In %

65.3%

68.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

84.4%

55.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.7%

40.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.9%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.1%

68.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

58.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.2%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Omar Jasika

Break Points Saved %

92.3%

43.0%

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

26.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Castelnuovo 1 – 0 Omar Jasika

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Luca Castelnuovo #398

Omar Jasika #396

6-7 6-2 1-0

18 Aces 2

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

2 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Guangzhou Huangpu CH · 2025-09-08

R32

Luca Castelnuovo #501

Omar Jasika #198

7-6(2) 7-6(4)

10 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 5

100 Service Points 100

63 First Serve In 62

46 First Serve Won 38

14 Second Serve Won 18

9 Break Points Saved 6

12 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Luca Castelnuovo vs Omar Jasika — Prediction