ATP tennis predict — Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · SF 11:00

Predicted probability

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

24.44%

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

75.56%

Average Odds

3.91 / 1.23

Market probability

23.93% / 76.07%

Why This Prediction?

Ilya Ivashka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1750 vs 1508), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1735 vs 1526) and more wins on hard courts (91 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1508.1 Elo 1750.2

1525.5 Elo (surface) 1735.1

35 Wins (Challenger) 136

27 Wins (surface) 120

6 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.241 Dominance ratio 1.044

461 Rank 393

29.6 Age 32.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Castelnuovo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–8L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Ilya Ivashka

1st Serve In %

65.3%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

84.4%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.7%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.9%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.1%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.2%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Ilya Ivashka

Break Points Saved %

92.3%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

51.1%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Castelnuovo 0 – 0 Ilya Ivashka

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-12

SF

Ilya Ivashka #393

Luca Castelnuovo #461

6-3 6-4

4 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

24 First Serve Won 31

8 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.9

Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka — Prediction