ATP tennis predict — Luca Castelnuovo vs Chun Hsin Tseng

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · 1. round 09:00

Predicted probability

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

21.02%

Chun Hsin Tseng

Chinese Taipei

78.98%

Average Odds

4.97 / 1.15

Market probability

18.79% / 81.21%

Why This Prediction?

Chun Hsin Tseng is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1664 vs 1402), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1540 vs 1433) and more wins on hard courts (18 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1402.0 Elo 1663.7

1433.4 Elo (surface) 1540.0

32 Wins (Challenger) 191

24 Wins (surface) 60

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.288 Dominance ratio 1.298

461 Rank 221

29.6 Age 25.1

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Castelnuovo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–8L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Chun Hsin Tseng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Chun Hsin Tseng

1st Serve In %

65.3%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

84.4%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.7%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

23.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.9%

51.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.1%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

73.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

55.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.2%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

55.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.08

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Chun Hsin Tseng

Break Points Saved %

92.3%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

27.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

39.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Castelnuovo 0 – 0 Chun Hsin Tseng

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Luca Castelnuovo #461

Chun Hsin Tseng #221

3-6 7-6 6-2

12 Aces 7

6 Double Faults 1

93 Service Points 98

62 First Serve In 66

50 First Serve Won 46

13 Second Serve Won 19

2 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

5.0 Average Odds 1.1

Luca Castelnuovo vs Chun Hsin Tseng — Prediction