ATP tennis predict — Luca Castelnuovo vs Alexander Vasilev

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

44.43%

Alexander Vasilev

Bulgaria

55.57%

Average Odds

2.12 / 1.65

Market probability

43.77% / 56.23%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Vasilev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1552 vs 1415), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1500 vs 1466) and better recent form (6 wins in his last 15 matches vs 5).

Player Comparison

1414.5 Elo 1552.2

1466.2 Elo (surface) 1500

31 Wins (Challenger) 6

23 Wins (surface) 0

5 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.258 Dominance ratio 0.874

435 Rank 572

29.5 Age 19.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Castelnuovo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–8L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alexander Vasilev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Alexander Vasilev

1st Serve In %

65.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

84.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.67

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.1%

61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

69.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.2%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.58

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Alexander Vasilev

Break Points Saved %

92.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

65.5%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

51.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Castelnuovo 0 – 0 Alexander Vasilev

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-19

qualification - 1. round

Alexander Vasilev #578

Luca Castelnuovo #429

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 3

59 Service Points 48

33 First Serve In 27

20 First Serve Won 21

12 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Luca Castelnuovo vs Alexander Vasilev — Prediction