ATP tennis predict — Luca Castelnuovo vs Akira Santillan

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

50.41%

Akira Santillan

Australia

49.59%

Average Odds

1.86 / 1.81

Market probability

49.32% / 50.68%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1501.4 Elo 1555.7

1512.4 Elo (surface) 1537.2

36 Wins (Challenger) 163

28 Wins (surface) 115

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.241 Dominance ratio 1.002

447 Rank 317

29.7 Age 29.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Castelnuovo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–8L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Akira Santillan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–9L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Akira Santillan

1st Serve In %

65.3%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

84.4%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.7%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.9%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.1%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.2%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

47.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castelnuovo Akira Santillan

Break Points Saved %

92.3%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

51.2%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Castelnuovo and Akira Santillan have never played each other.

Luca Castelnuovo vs Akira Santillan — Prediction