ATP tennis predict — Luca Castagnola vs Yoan Naydenov

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Luca Castagnola

Italy

77.79%

Yoan Naydenov

Bulgaria

22.21%

Average Odds

1.02 / 12.53

Market probability

92.47% / 7.53%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Castagnola is the favorite because he has more career match wins (15 vs 0), better recent form (4 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0) and more wins on clay courts (9 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1378.8 Elo 1500

1333.6 Elo (surface) 1500

15 Wins (Challenger) 0

9 Wins (surface) 0

4 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.799 Dominance ratio 0.799

784 Rank -

24.1 Age 19.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Castagnola

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Yoan Naydenov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castagnola Yoan Naydenov

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

61.5%

56.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

37.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.2%

52.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

13.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

45.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.52

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castagnola Yoan Naydenov

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

56.1%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

48.3%

100.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Castagnola 0 – 0 Yoan Naydenov

Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · 2026-08-02

qualification - 1. round

Luca Castagnola #784

Yoan Naydenov #-

6-1 6-3

2 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 2

42 Service Points 57

22 First Serve In 32

19 First Serve Won 12

11 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.0 Average Odds 12.5

Luca Castagnola vs Yoan Naydenov — Prediction