ATP tennis predict — Luca Castagnola vs Georgiev G.

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Luca Castagnola

Italy

65.29%

Georgiev G.

Bulgaria

34.71%

Average Odds

1.48 / 2.50

Market probability

62.81% / 37.19%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Castagnola is the favorite because he has more career match wins (16 vs 1), better recent form (4 wins in his last 15 matches vs 1) and more wins on clay courts (10 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1412.1 Elo 1569.7

1374.9 Elo (surface) 1570.4

16 Wins (Challenger) 1

10 Wins (surface) 1

4 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.870 Dominance ratio 0.870

784 Rank -

24.1 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Luca Castagnola

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Georgiev G.

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castagnola Georgiev G.

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

61.5%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.24

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.52

—

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Luca Castagnola Georgiev G.

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

56.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

48.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Luca Castagnola and Georgiev G. have never played each other.

Luca Castagnola vs Georgiev G. — Prediction