ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Sonego

Italy

31.50%

Tallon Griekspoor

Netherlands

68.50%

Average Odds

1.92 / 1.87

Market probability

49.34% / 50.66%

Why This Prediction?

Tallon Griekspoor is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1766 vs 1574), a higher Elo rating (1792 vs 1745) and more career match wins (120 vs 99).

Player Comparison

1745.3 Elo 1792.0

1574.4 Elo (surface) 1765.7

213 Wins 159

109 Wins (surface) 97

6 Last 15 form 5

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.067 Dominance ratio 1.094

80 Rank 67

31.2 Age 30.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Sonego

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Tallon Griekspoor

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Sonego Tallon Griekspoor

1st Serve In %

60.7%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

75.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

59.1%

56.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.6%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.6%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

58.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.0%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.0%

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Sonego Tallon Griekspoor

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

61.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Sonego 2 – 0 Tallon Griekspoor

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Tallon Griekspoor #69

Lorenzo Sonego #88

7-6 7-5

9 Aces 5

4 Double Faults 3

76 Service Points 71

50 First Serve In 44

36 First Serve Won 33

14 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 2

24 Winners 23

23 Unforced Errors 22

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Hard Canada Masters · 2024-08-05

R64

Lorenzo Sonego #57

Tallon Griekspoor #40

7-6(7) 5-7 6-4

12 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 6

103 Service Points 108

66 First Serve In 73

48 First Serve Won 54

21 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2022-10-31

Q2

Lorenzo Sonego #51

Tallon Griekspoor #70

3-6 6-4 7-6(3)

11 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 2

86 Service Points 87

67 First Serve In 55

53 First Serve Won 37

6 Second Serve Won 20

2 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 5