ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak

ATP Hard Tokyo · qualification - round of 16 09:40

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Sonego

Italy

50.41%

Kamil Majchrzak

Poland

49.59%

Average Odds

2.22 / 1.62

Market probability

42.19% / 57.81%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1855.6 Elo 1908.8

1830.9 Elo (surface) 1810.4

217 Wins 108

113 Wins (surface) 68

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.006 Dominance ratio 1.113

83 Rank 71

31.4 Age 30.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Sonego

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Kamil Majchrzak

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Sonego Kamil Majchrzak

1st Serve In %

58.0%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.7%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.6%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.0%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.0%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Sonego Kamil Majchrzak

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

31.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

68.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Sonego and Kamil Majchrzak have never played each other.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak — Prediction