ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Sonego vs Francesco Passaro

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Sonego

Italy

46.92%

Francesco Passaro

Italy

53.08%

Average Odds

1.54 / 2.37

Market probability

60.61% / 39.39%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1738.1 Elo 1697.5

1646.3 Elo (surface) 1691.0

99 Wins (Challenger) 121

47 Wins (surface) 103

11 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.167 Dominance ratio 0.758

89 Rank 207

31.3 Age 25.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Sonego

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Francesco Passaro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Sonego Francesco Passaro

1st Serve In %

60.7%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

59.1%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.6%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.6%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.0%

25.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.0%

34.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Sonego Francesco Passaro

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

48.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Sonego 0 – 1 Francesco Passaro

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Francesco Passaro #207

Lorenzo Sonego #89

3-6 6-4 6-4

7 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 4

93 Service Points 79

60 First Serve In 50

42 First Serve Won 37

17 Second Serve Won 19

3 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Clay Turin CH · 2024-05-13

SF

Francesco Passaro #240

Lorenzo Sonego #47

6-3 6-2

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Lorenzo Sonego vs Francesco Passaro — Prediction