ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Sonego vs Aziz Dougaz

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 06:10

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Sonego

Italy

76.36%

Aziz Dougaz

Tunisia

23.64%

Average Odds

1.22 / 4.11

Market probability

77.11% / 22.89%

Why This Prediction?

Lorenzo Sonego is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1848 vs 1648), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1818 vs 1649) and a stronger return game (43.0% vs 36.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1847.5 Elo 1648.5

1817.8 Elo (surface) 1649.4

217 Wins 17

113 Wins (surface) 12

7 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.006 Dominance ratio 0.859

83 Rank 423

31.4 Age 29.5

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Sonego

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Aziz Dougaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Sonego Aziz Dougaz

1st Serve In %

58.5%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%

44.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.6%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.0%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.0%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Sonego Aziz Dougaz

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

50.8%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

51.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Sonego and Aziz Dougaz have never played each other.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Aziz Dougaz — Prediction