ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Sonego vs Adrian Mannarino

ATP Hard Winston Salem · 2. round 02:20

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Sonego

Italy

59.82%

Adrian Mannarino

France

40.18%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.18

Market probability

56.62% / 43.38%

Why This Prediction?

Lorenzo Sonego is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1745 vs 1681), a stronger serve (69.4% vs 63.8% of service points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.10 vs 0.14).

Player Comparison

1745.5 Elo 1680.8

1593.9 Elo (surface) 1718.4

215 Wins 412

111 Wins (surface) 280

7 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 3

1.018 Dominance ratio 1.032

91 Rank 67

31.3 Age 38.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Sonego

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Sonego Adrian Mannarino

1st Serve In %

60.7%

54.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

59.1%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.6%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.6%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.0%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.0%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Sonego Adrian Mannarino

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Sonego 2 – 3 Adrian Mannarino

Hard Winston Salem · 2026-08-26

2. round

Lorenzo Sonego #91

Adrian Mannarino #67

6-1 7-6

2 Aces 9

4 Double Faults 1

71 Service Points 70

34 First Serve In 42

20 First Serve Won 32

18 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 2

8 Winners 22

33 Unforced Errors 35

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Hard Beijing · 2024-09-26

R32

Adrian Mannarino #44

Lorenzo Sonego #50

1-6 6-2 6-3

1 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 3

68 Service Points 75

42 First Serve In 50

32 First Serve Won 36

13 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard United Cup · 2024-01-01

RR

Adrian Mannarino #22

Lorenzo Sonego #46

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 1

62 Service Points 62

44 First Serve In 40

32 First Serve Won 27

13 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Us Open · 2020-08-31

R128

Adrian Mannarino #39

Lorenzo Sonego #46

6-1 6-4 2-6 6-3

1 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 2

99 Service Points 99

66 First Serve In 66

43 First Serve Won 44

18 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Antalya · 2019-06-24

QF

Lorenzo Sonego #75

Adrian Mannarino #37

3-6 7-6(3) 6-3

10 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 3

88 Service Points 95

58 First Serve In 59

44 First Serve Won 42

20 Second Serve Won 23

1 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rome Masters · 2018-05-14

R64

Lorenzo Sonego #140

Adrian Mannarino #27

2-6 7-6(4) 6-3

6 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

88 Service Points 89

51 First Serve In 57

40 First Serve Won 45

17 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Lorenzo Sonego vs Adrian Mannarino — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Sonego — Last 10

Adrian Mannarino — Last 10