ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Musetti vs Jaime Faria

ATP Hard Cincinnati · R16 03:15

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

49.46%

Jaime Faria

Portugal

50.54%

Average Odds

1.32 / 3.35

Market probability

71.73% / 28.27%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1848.8 Elo 1814.1

1686.5 Elo (surface) 1668.9

213 Wins 45

105 Wins (surface) 15

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.724 Dominance ratio 1.106

15 Rank 79

24.5 Age 23.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Jaime Faria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Musetti Jaime Faria

1st Serve In %

53.6%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.9%

57.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

76.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.8%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Musetti Jaime Faria

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

43.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.6%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

49.3%

44.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Musetti 0 – 0 Jaime Faria

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-20

R16

Lorenzo Musetti #15

Jaime Faria #79

7-5 6-2

4 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 1

60 Service Points 49

31 First Serve In 34

22 First Serve Won 26

11 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 0

4 Break Points Faced 1

9 Winners 18

29 Unforced Errors 15

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Lorenzo Musetti vs Jaime Faria — Prediction