ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Musetti vs Arthur Fery

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 03:00

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

58.00%

Arthur Fery

Great Britain

42.00%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.76

Market probability

65.87% / 34.13%

Why This Prediction?

Lorenzo Musetti is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2085 vs 1969), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1979 vs 1848) and a better head-to-head record against Arthur Fery (1-0).

Player Comparison

2084.6 Elo 1968.8

1978.6 Elo (surface) 1847.5

215 Wins 27

107 Wins (surface) 15

10 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.736 Dominance ratio 1.222

25 Rank 36

24.6 Age 24.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Arthur Fery

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Musetti Arthur Fery

1st Serve In %

53.6%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

58.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.7%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.9%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.8%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Musetti Arthur Fery

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

53.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.6%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

49.3%

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Musetti 1 – 0 Arthur Fery

Hard US Open · 2026-09-01

1. round

Lorenzo Musetti #14

Arthur Fery #33

6-3 6-3 7-5

0 Aces 7

5 Double Faults 4

89 Service Points 79

47 First Serve In 48

29 First Serve Won 37

20 Second Serve Won 21

3 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 6

17 Winners 22

43 Unforced Errors 28

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Lorenzo Musetti vs Arthur Fery — Prediction