ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Wilson Leite

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · qualification - round of 16 15:00

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Argentina

67.86%

Wilson Leite

Brazil

32.14%

Average Odds

1.19 / 4.32

Market probability

78.40% / 21.60%

Why This Prediction?

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1523 vs 1435), a higher Elo rating (1508 vs 1428) and a stronger serve (63.6% vs 60.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1507.7 Elo 1428.0

1522.8 Elo (surface) 1435.4

36 Wins (Challenger) 71

36 Wins (surface) 65

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.140 Dominance ratio 1.096

538 Rank 729

27.0 Age 34.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Wilson Leite

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Wilson Leite

1st Serve In %

—

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

54.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.9%

64.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

62.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.4%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.6%

35.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

54.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Wilson Leite

Break Points Saved %

—

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

52.5%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez and Wilson Leite have never played each other.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Wilson Leite — Prediction