ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Tomas Barrios Vera

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Argentina

29.36%

Tomas Barrios Vera

Chile

70.64%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Tomas Barrios Vera is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1751 vs 1524), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1722 vs 1539) and more wins on clay courts (205 vs 37).

Player Comparison

1524.2 Elo 1751.4

1538.9 Elo (surface) 1722.0

37 Wins (Challenger) 249

37 Wins (surface) 205

7 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.140 Dominance ratio 1.064

538 Rank 135

27.0 Age 28.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Tomas Barrios Vera

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Tomas Barrios Vera

1st Serve In %

—

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

41.5%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.2%

63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

64.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.3%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.9%

36.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Tomas Barrios Vera

Break Points Saved %

—

60.5%

Break Points Converted %

—

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.9%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

58.2%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez and Tomas Barrios Vera have never played each other.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Tomas Barrios Vera — Prediction