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Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Thiago Cigarran — Prediction

Challenger Clay Santa Cruz De La Sierra challenger · qualification - round of 16 21:30

Predicted probability

Thiago Cigarran

Argentina

50.63%

Average Odds

1.26  /  3.29

Market probability

72.31%  /  27.69%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1536.9 Elo 1483.7
1549.7 Elo (surface) 1496.6
39 Wins (Challenger) 20
39 Wins (surface) 20
8 Last 15 form 7
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.140 Dominance ratio 1.033
533 Rank 622
27.0 Age 26.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Thiago Cigarran

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Thiago Cigarran

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

71.2%
69.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

90.5%
62.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.8%
51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%
27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.2%
47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.22
0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14
0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Thiago Cigarran

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

54.8%
49.4%

Break Points Converted %

51.6%
53.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez and Thiago Cigarran have never played each other.

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez — Last 10

W L W L W W L W W L

Thiago Cigarran — Last 10

W L W W L W L L W W