ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Giustino vs Vitaliy Sachko

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Giustino

Italy

33.54%

Vitaliy Sachko

Ukraine

66.46%

Average Odds

2.35 / 1.55

Market probability

39.74% / 60.26%

Why This Prediction?

Vitaliy Sachko is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1663 vs 1553), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1679 vs 1590) and a stronger return game (40.4% vs 37.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1552.6 Elo 1663.5

1589.9 Elo (surface) 1679.2

243 Wins (Challenger) 170

171 Wins (surface) 108

7 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.944 Dominance ratio 0.992

198 Rank 189

34.9 Age 29.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Giustino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Vitaliy Sachko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Vitaliy Sachko

1st Serve In %

57.2%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

43.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.6%

63.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

61.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.2%

53.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Vitaliy Sachko

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.1%

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Giustino 1 – 0 Vitaliy Sachko

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Lorenzo Giustino #198

Vitaliy Sachko #189

3-6 7-6 6-4

7 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 7

107 Service Points 94

65 First Serve In 59

47 First Serve Won 42

19 Second Serve Won 18

5 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Clay Barcelona CH · 2024-04-01

R16

Lorenzo Giustino #354

Vitaliy Sachko #187

6-4 6-2

2 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 2

57 Service Points 62

38 First Serve In 37

20 First Serve Won 17

11 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 9

7 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Lorenzo Giustino vs Vitaliy Sachko — Prediction