ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Giustino vs Michael Vrbensky

Challenger Clay Maia challenger · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Giustino

Italy

65.83%

Michael Vrbensky

Czech Republic

34.17%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.05

Market probability

69.48% / 30.52%

Why This Prediction?

Lorenzo Giustino is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1657 vs 1489), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1636 vs 1482) and more wins on clay courts (179 vs 79).

Player Comparison

1657.5 Elo 1488.8

1636.1 Elo (surface) 1481.5

251 Wins (Challenger) 99

179 Wins (surface) 79

8 Last 15 form 5

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.976 Dominance ratio 1.105

216 Rank 754

35.1 Age 26.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Giustino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Michael Vrbensky

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Michael Vrbensky

1st Serve In %

57.2%

57.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

61.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

34.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

61.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%

56.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.1%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.4%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Michael Vrbensky

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

51.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Giustino 2 – 0 Michael Vrbensky

Hard Oeiras 2 CH · 2024-01-08

R32

Lorenzo Giustino #288

Michael Vrbensky #301

6-4 2-6 7-5

7 Aces 3

8 Double Faults 5

116 Service Points 96

77 First Serve In 58

50 First Serve Won 44

17 Second Serve Won 14

6 Break Points Saved 6

10 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Oeiras 1 CH · 2024-01-01

R32

Lorenzo Giustino #287

Michael Vrbensky #300

7-5 4-6 6-4

3 Aces 11

10 Double Faults 12

113 Service Points 110

69 First Serve In 59

40 First Serve Won 36

19 Second Serve Won 18

6 Break Points Saved 5

13 Break Points Faced 13