ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew William Donald

Challenger Clay Bari challenger · R16 13:00

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Giustino

Italy

45.09%

Matthew William Donald

Czech Republic

54.91%

Average Odds

1.78 / 1.95

Market probability

52.28% / 47.72%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1658.7 Elo 1637.5

1633.0 Elo (surface) 1630.5

249 Wins (Challenger) 18

177 Wins (surface) 15

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.976 Dominance ratio 0.766

210 Rank 460

35.1 Age 21.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Giustino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Matthew William Donald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Matthew William Donald

1st Serve In %

57.2%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.38

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.7%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

65.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

54.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Matthew William Donald

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.7%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

53.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Giustino and Matthew William Donald have never played each other.

Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew William Donald — Prediction