ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Giustino vs John Sperle

Challenger Clay Bari challenger · 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Giustino

Italy

60.54%

John Sperle

Germany

39.46%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.64

Market probability

65.02% / 34.98%

Why This Prediction?

Lorenzo Giustino is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1652 vs 1521), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1624 vs 1525) and more wins on clay courts (176 vs 15).

Player Comparison

1651.9 Elo 1520.6

1624.1 Elo (surface) 1525.5

248 Wins (Challenger) 17

176 Wins (surface) 15

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.976 Dominance ratio 1.012

210 Rank 672

35.0 Age 24.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Giustino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

John Sperle

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino John Sperle

1st Serve In %

57.2%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.38

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.6%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

63.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.2%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.14

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino John Sperle

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.1%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Giustino and John Sperle have never played each other.

Lorenzo Giustino vs John Sperle — Prediction