ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Giustino vs Jerome Kym

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · QF 14:00

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Giustino

Italy

23.26%

Jerome Kym

Switzerland

76.74%

Average Odds

3.64 / 1.25

Market probability

25.56% / 74.44%

Why This Prediction?

Jerome Kym is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1744 vs 1576), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1739 vs 1616) and a stronger serve (68.2% vs 60.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1575.7 Elo 1744.0

1615.8 Elo (surface) 1739.1

245 Wins (Challenger) 79

173 Wins (surface) 60

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.911 Dominance ratio 0.989

198 Rank 205

34.9 Age 23.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Giustino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jerome Kym

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Jerome Kym

1st Serve In %

57.2%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

78.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.97

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.6%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

72.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.2%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

45.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Jerome Kym

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

71.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

32.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.1%

48.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

33.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Giustino 0 – 0 Jerome Kym

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-07

QF

Jerome Kym #205

Lorenzo Giustino #198

6-3 7-6

4 Aces 11

3 Double Faults 4

72 Service Points 66

40 First Serve In 37

29 First Serve Won 33

15 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 0

4 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.6

Lorenzo Giustino vs Jerome Kym — Prediction