ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Giustino vs Henry Bernet

Challenger Clay Sion challenger · R16 13:00

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Giustino

Italy

37.33%

Henry Bernet

Switzerland

62.67%

Average Odds

2.21 / 1.61

Market probability

42.15% / 57.85%

Why This Prediction?

Henry Bernet is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1604 vs 1577), fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.20) and a stronger serve (65.0% vs 60.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1576.8 Elo 1603.6

1615.3 Elo (surface) 1630.0

246 Wins (Challenger) 11

174 Wins (surface) 10

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.973 Dominance ratio 0.763

195 Rank 436

34.9 Age 19.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Giustino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Henry Bernet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Henry Bernet

1st Serve In %

57.2%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

53.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

23.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.68

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.6%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.2%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Henry Bernet

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

32.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.1%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Giustino 0 – 0 Henry Bernet

Clay Sion challenger · 2026-08-19

R16

Lorenzo Giustino #195

Henry Bernet #436

6-4 3-6 7-6

3 Aces 12

7 Double Faults 7

98 Service Points 102

55 First Serve In 47

43 First Serve Won 36

24 Second Serve Won 32

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Lorenzo Giustino vs Henry Bernet — Prediction