ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Giustino vs Grigor Dimitrov

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Giustino

Italy

17.89%

Grigor Dimitrov

Bulgaria

82.11%

Average Odds

8.02 / 1.07

Market probability

11.77% / 88.23%

Why This Prediction?

Grigor Dimitrov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1836 vs 1547), a higher Elo rating (1802 vs 1589) and more wins on hard courts (341 vs 15).

Player Comparison

1588.8 Elo 1801.6

1547.1 Elo (surface) 1836.2

40 Wins 514

15 Wins (surface) 341

4 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.870 Dominance ratio 0.899

201 Rank 137

35.0 Age 35.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Giustino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Grigor Dimitrov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Grigor Dimitrov

1st Serve In %

57.2%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.6%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

77.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.2%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Giustino Grigor Dimitrov

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

48.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.1%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Giustino 0 – 0 Grigor Dimitrov

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Grigor Dimitrov #137

Lorenzo Giustino #201

6-0 6-3

1 Aces 5

4 Double Faults 1

45 Service Points 35

22 First Serve In 21

13 First Serve Won 18

8 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 2

4 Winners 19

17 Unforced Errors 11

1.1 Average Odds 8.0

Lorenzo Giustino vs Grigor Dimitrov — Prediction