ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Carboni vs Pedro Martinez

Challenger Clay Como challenger · 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Carboni

Italy

20.43%

Pedro Martinez

Spain

79.57%

Average Odds

3.25 / 1.31

Market probability

28.73% / 71.27%

Why This Prediction?

Pedro Martinez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1618 vs 1413), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1633 vs 1433) and more wins on clay courts (88 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1412.9 Elo 1618.5

1432.9 Elo (surface) 1633.1

28 Wins (Challenger) 159

18 Wins (surface) 120

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.822 Dominance ratio 0.997

482 Rank 148

20.5 Age 29.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Carboni

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Pedro Martinez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Carboni Pedro Martinez

1st Serve In %

75.4%

67.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.3%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

29.4%

58.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

33.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.1%

56.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.4%

65.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.5%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

38.6%

43.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

56.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.08

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Carboni Pedro Martinez

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

49.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

42.5%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Carboni 0 – 1 Pedro Martinez

Clay Como challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Pedro Martinez #148

Lorenzo Carboni #482

6-1 3-0

1 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 1

36 Service Points 28

21 First Serve In 17

13 First Serve Won 15

3 Second Serve Won 6

3 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Hard Olbia CH · 2023-10-16

R32

Pedro Martinez #136

Lorenzo Carboni #704

6-3 6-3

0 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 2

55 Service Points 70

39 First Serve In 50

26 First Serve Won 31

9 Second Serve Won 3

5 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Lorenzo Carboni vs Pedro Martinez — Prediction