ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie Mcdonald

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · 1. round 15:30

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Carboni

Italy

20.69%

Mackenzie Mcdonald

USA

79.31%

Average Odds

3.78 / 1.22

Market probability

24.40% / 75.60%

Why This Prediction?

Mackenzie Mcdonald is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1742 vs 1496), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1751 vs 1457) and more wins on hard courts (130 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1495.9 Elo 1742.0

1457.4 Elo (surface) 1751.2

28 Wins (Challenger) 136

10 Wins (surface) 118

7 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.803 Dominance ratio 1.013

562 Rank 169

20.6 Age 31.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Carboni

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Carboni Mackenzie Mcdonald

1st Serve In %

75.4%

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.3%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

29.4%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.1%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.4%

64.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.5%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

38.6%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.08

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Carboni Mackenzie Mcdonald

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

42.5%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

35.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Carboni and Mackenzie Mcdonald have never played each other.

Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie Mcdonald — Prediction