ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Angelini vs Petr Nesterov

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Angelini

Italy

31.22%

Petr Nesterov

Bulgaria

68.78%

Average Odds

2.82 / 1.39

Market probability

33.02% / 66.98%

Why This Prediction?

Petr Nesterov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1578 vs 1417), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1566 vs 1442) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1417.0 Elo 1578.1

1441.7 Elo (surface) 1566.5

4 Wins (Challenger) 33

4 Wins (surface) 24

4 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.936 Dominance ratio 0.864

564 Rank 364

20.4 Age 23.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Angelini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Petr Nesterov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Angelini Petr Nesterov

1st Serve In %

—

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

56.3%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.6%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.0%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.9%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.4%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.2%

44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Angelini Petr Nesterov

Break Points Saved %

—

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

26.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

49.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Angelini 0 – 0 Petr Nesterov

Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Petr Nesterov #364

Lorenzo Angelini #564

7-5 6-1

0 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 2

55 Service Points 78

30 First Serve In 41

16 First Serve Won 28

10 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Lorenzo Angelini vs Petr Nesterov — Prediction