ATP tennis predict — Lorenzo Angelini vs Garrett Johns

Challenger Clay Bari challenger · 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Lorenzo Angelini

Italy

13.30%

Garrett Johns

USA

86.70%

Average Odds

2.23 / 1.55

Market probability

41.01% / 58.99%

Why This Prediction?

Garrett Johns is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1591 vs 1351), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1568 vs 1367) and a stronger serve (63.8% vs 51.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1350.9 Elo 1590.8

1367.1 Elo (surface) 1567.6

4 Wins (Challenger) 62

4 Wins (surface) 23

4 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.899 Dominance ratio 1.236

575 Rank 442

20.6 Age 25.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lorenzo Angelini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Garrett Johns

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Angelini Garrett Johns

1st Serve In %

—

49.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

73.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

23.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.6%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.0%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.9%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.4%

34.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.2%

53.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lorenzo Angelini Garrett Johns

Break Points Saved %

—

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

40.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lorenzo Angelini and Garrett Johns have never played each other.

Lorenzo Angelini vs Garrett Johns — Prediction