ATP tennis predict — Lloyd Harris vs Hubert Hurkacz

ATP Hard Chengdu · QF 11:30

Predicted probability

Lloyd Harris

RSA

42.35%

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

57.65%

Average Odds

2.35 / 1.58

Market probability

40.20% / 59.80%

Why This Prediction?

Hubert Hurkacz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1942 vs 1883), a higher Elo rating (2028 vs 1914) and more wins on hard courts (176 vs 108).

Player Comparison

1913.6 Elo 2027.6

1882.9 Elo (surface) 1941.5

140 Wins 264

108 Wins (surface) 176

11 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.156 Dominance ratio 0.990

136 Rank 46

29.6 Age 29.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lloyd Harris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 14W–3L · 82.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lloyd Harris Hubert Hurkacz

1st Serve In %

57.4%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

75.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

59.7%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.86

0.83

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.5%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.2%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lloyd Harris Hubert Hurkacz

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.4%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.4%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.1%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lloyd Harris 1 – 1 Hubert Hurkacz

Hard Miami Masters · 2022-03-21

R16

Hubert Hurkacz #10

Lloyd Harris #44

7-6(3) 6-2

9 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 0

60 Service Points 64

39 First Serve In 38

31 First Serve Won 24

12 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Lisbon CH · 2017-06-12

R32

Lloyd Harris #250

Hubert Hurkacz #329

6-4 7-6(5)

0 Aces 2

6 Double Faults 4

62 Service Points 82

32 First Serve In 58

27 First Serve Won 40

21 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 8

0 Break Points Faced 9