ATP tennis predict — Lloyd Harris vs Alexis Galarneau

ATP Hard Chengdu · qualification - quarterfinal 07:10

Predicted probability

Lloyd Harris

RSA

74.12%

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

25.88%

Average Odds

1.30 / 3.38

Market probability

72.22% / 27.78%

Why This Prediction?

Lloyd Harris is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1887 vs 1748), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1853 vs 1701) and a stronger serve (67.8% vs 59.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1886.8 Elo 1748.1

1853.4 Elo (surface) 1701.3

137 Wins 17

105 Wins (surface) 11

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.156 Dominance ratio 0.936

136 Rank 179

29.6 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Lloyd Harris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 13W–3L · 81.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Alexis Galarneau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lloyd Harris Alexis Galarneau

1st Serve In %

59.0%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.7%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.5%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.2%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Lloyd Harris Alexis Galarneau

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.7%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.4%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.1%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Lloyd Harris 0 – 0 Alexis Galarneau

Hard Chengdu · 2026-09-23

qualification - quarterfinal

Lloyd Harris #136

Alexis Galarneau #179

6-3 7-5

18 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

37 First Serve Won 24

8 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Lloyd Harris vs Alexis Galarneau — Prediction