ATP tennis predict — Linang Xiao vs Kaichi Uchida

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Linang Xiao

China

33.30%

Kaichi Uchida

Japan

66.70%

Average Odds

2.63 / 1.44

Market probability

35.38% / 64.62%

Why This Prediction?

Kaichi Uchida is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1457 vs 1340), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1490 vs 1351) and more wins on hard courts (136 vs 12).

Player Comparison

1339.6 Elo 1457.3

1350.6 Elo (surface) 1489.6

12 Wins (Challenger) 165

12 Wins (surface) 136

2 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.839 Dominance ratio 0.820

1115 Rank 277

26.5 Age 32.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Linang Xiao

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-09-07.

Kaichi Uchida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Linang Xiao Kaichi Uchida

1st Serve In %

57.3%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.8%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.8%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.9%

27.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Linang Xiao Kaichi Uchida

Break Points Saved %

45.6%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

33.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

46.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Linang Xiao 0 – 0 Kaichi Uchida

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Linang Xiao #1115

Kaichi Uchida #277

6-3 7-5

7 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 4

82 Service Points 66

40 First Serve In 36

25 First Serve Won 20

23 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.4

Linang Xiao vs Kaichi Uchida — Prediction